imagine you are a policy analyst for the City of Bloomington，Indiana. Mayor John Hamilton asks you to provide him with your thoughts on the results of a recent survey conducted by a consulting firm on the effect of the city’s anti-smoking campaign. The anti-smoking campaign features a number of billboards, radio commercials, signs, and public events aimed at getting city residents to quit smoking. Some information from that survey is noted below:
-The survey was conducted on a Friday afternoon outside a local tobacco store and included 400 respondents who agreed to be interviewed.
-Respondents were asked how much they smoked before the anti-smoking campaign started and how much they smoke now.
-From the survey, the average number of cigarettes smoked per day before the anti-smoking campaign was 2.2 The average number of cigarettes smoked per day after the campaign was 3.0.
-The margin of error (at the 95 percent confidence level) is +/- 0.5 cigarettes.
Some owners of local tobacco shops have gone to city council meetings to ask that the city stop wasting money on the anti-smoking program, arguing that these survey results prove the anti-smoking campaign is not working.
Using the survey results, the information above, and the ideas we discussed in class, write a brief memo to Mayor Hamilton (no more than one page, single spaced), that includes the following:
1. Your decision on whether the anti-smoking campaign has reduced smoking (based on the survey results and other information provided above).
2. A logical explanation of your decision, using ideas discussed in class.
3. A simple bar chart (made in Excel or the spreadsheet program of your choice) that illustrates the average cigarettes smoked per person per day (according to the survey results) before and after the anti-smoking campaign. One bonus point will be awarded if you correctly incorporate margins of error into the bar chart.
4. Your recommendation for what the city should do in response to the survey results and the requests of the owners of the tobacco shops. Keep in mind that “do nothing” is always a potential option in the world of policy.