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Decision tree based on the hypothetical stock

Probabilities and to develop a decision tree based on the hypothetical stock

calculate joint probabilities and to develop a decision tree based on the hypothetical stock prices for the major US banks provided in the data set provided for this course. In doing so, you need to do the following:

  1. Calculate the probability for price gains and losses based on the 4th quarter of 2021;
  2. Create a decision tree with branches for price gains and losses for each quarter of 2022;
  3. Calculate the joint probabilities for the 4th quarter gains and losses for 2022.
    To complete Assignment 1, select the hypothetical data for Citibank, Chase, PNC, or Wells

Address each of the following questions:

  1. What is the decision-making or management issue being addressed?
  2. What data are used to answer the decision-making or management issues?
  3. What is the analytical method used to analyze the data?
  4. What are the findings of the data analyses?
  5. What are the decision-making I management implications of the findings?

Sample Solution

Individuals commit grant fraud by acquiring funds from charities for their own use instead of a cause. This can be prevented by implementing procedures for review and approval of grant applications and a due diligence process to check the applicants and purpose. A charity lost around £500K in grant fraud. 8 Pre- employment screening, gaps in employment, criminal and credit checks can identify concerns around integrity and indicate individuals that should not be hired as they are likely to commit fraud. For instance 15a previous criminal record can indicate repeat behaviour. Checks should be ongoing during employment. Stephen Ashton stole more than £2.5m and he had a prior conviction for fraud. 8Phishing a type of online fraud is used to steal bank details. Staff need to know how identify and report phishing emails. The latest spyware and anti-virus should be used on all devices and passwords should comply with industry standard. It is important to reconcile bank and credit card statements regularly. One in five charities identified a cyber breach in a 12 month period. These systems and controls will need to be appropriate for the size of the charity. Small charities may be unable to have sufficient segregation of duties and management will need to undertake more review activity. Larger charities can benefit from having a fraud prevention team dedicated to the fraud strategy such as Oxfam. Question 3 Identify and evaluate the key methodologies that could be utilised by a regulated firm to embed an effective financial crime prevention (FCP) culture. As part of your analysis, discuss the benefits of embedding an effective FCP culture. 20 marks – this is too short and has to be increased BY 300 WORDS 3 . Culture is defined as the typical, habitual behaviours and mind-sets that characterise a particular organisation. Embedding a Financial Crime Prevention (FCP) culture requires tone from top, policies, procedures, training and recruitment of the right staff. Embedding a culture requires effective communication from the top, awareness of the indicators of financial crime, training, FCP policy, robust hiring practices, an understanding of whistleblowing procedures as well as an effective monitoring programme.

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