Jack Flanagan (fictitious) is an aide close to the United States Ambassador to the United Nations. Flanagan is
a graduate of Harvard Law School, and as an alumnus he is a member of the Harvard Club. The Harvard Club
is a private social club for Harvard alumni and faculty located in midtown Manhattan. Flanagan frequently visits
the Harvard Club at the close of business at the United Nations Headquarters in Manhattan. He is also known
to take strolls through nearby Bryant Park on occasion.
Intelligence sources indicate that Flanagan is being targeted by foreign agents. An FBI detail has been
assigned to conduct a counter-surveillance operation to determine if foreign agents are contacting Flanagan or
otherwise have him under observation. The mission is to covertly monitor the aide’s movements—without his
knowledge—to identify any surveillance or other activity by foreign operatives. Initial surveillance by a large
team of Special Agents has provided raw data regarding Flanagan's movements. Your task as an analyst is to
predict Flanagan's destination over the next five days. This will assist the FBI in continuing surveillance with a
reduced detail.
Prepare a decision tree using the following appendix from the initial surveillance report (FLANAGAN ROUTINE
- DECISIONTREES.xlsx )to get started. This will provide you with the initial model of his movements. Then
consult the weather.com forecast for downtown Manhattan over the next five days to provide the data with
which to make your predictions. Once you have projected the destinations for each day, calculate the
probability you are correct for each based on the known information and past behavior.
You are to submit brief essay, describing the conditions and the predicted destinations for each day. Be sure to
include the probabilities for each and your tree diagram.
Sample Solution