What makes a decision good?
The research that shows that most people are prone to decision errors (such as anchoring, reasoning by representativeness and availability, and susceptibility to framing) has been criticized for using trick questions to make people look stupid. The researchers themselves argue that they are trying to understand how people think, and that by making people aware of the possibility of decision errors, people will make better decisions.
To them, a better decision is one that leads to higher accuracy, greater long term utility, and would not change if the same situation was described differently.
Do you agree or disagree with these criteria for a good decision? What, if anything, would you change or add? Can a good decision lead to a bad outcome? Can a bad decision lead to a good outcome? How? Think back to a good decision and a bad decision that you’ve made. Were these decisions easy or difficult? Do you think decision errors of the kind we’ve discussed played a role? Why are these decisions evaluated as good or bad?
Evaluating the Quality of Decisions
Introduction
The quality of a decision is a multifaceted concept influenced by various factors, including cognitive biases, decision-making processes, and outcomes. In this discourse, we examine the criteria proposed by researchers for defining a good decision and reflect on the nuances of decision quality, as well as the potential for discrepancies between decision quality and outcomes.
Criteria for a Good Decision
The criteria put forth by researchers for a good decision include higher accuracy, greater long-term utility, and decision consistency regardless of how a situation is framed. These criteria aim to enhance decision-making by mitigating common biases and errors that individuals may exhibit, thereby leading to more rational and beneficial choices.
Agreement with Criteria
I agree with the proposed criteria for a good decision as they align with the principles of rational decision-making. Striving for accuracy, long-term utility, and decision consistency fosters sound judgment and minimizes the influence of cognitive biases that can lead to suboptimal outcomes.
Additional Considerations
While the established criteria are essential, I would add the importance of ethical considerations in decision-making. Ethical decision-making involves weighing not only the potential benefits and risks but also the moral implications of one's choices on stakeholders and society at large.
Good Decision Leading to Bad Outcome
A good decision, based on rational criteria, can indeed lead to an unfavorable outcome due to unforeseen circumstances or external factors beyond one's control. Despite making a well-informed choice with the available information, external events or chance occurrences may result in an adverse consequence.
Bad Decision Leading to Good Outcome
Conversely, a bad decision may yield a positive outcome through luck, serendipity, or unintended consequences. While the decision-making process itself may have been flawed, fortuitous circumstances or external factors could lead to a favorable result despite the initial misjudgment.
Personal Reflection on Decisions
Reflecting on personal experiences, I recall a good decision that was challenging yet ultimately led to a positive outcome through careful consideration and weighing of options. Conversely, a bad decision I made was characterized by hasty judgment and overlooking critical information, resulting in an unfavorable consequence. Cognitive biases like anchoring or availability heuristic may have influenced these decisions, highlighting the importance of self-awareness and critical thinking in decision-making processes.
Evaluation of Decisions
Decisions are evaluated as good or bad based on their alignment with desired outcomes, ethical considerations, rationality, and the thought processes involved. Good decisions are characterized by informed reasoning, consideration of long-term implications, and ethical soundness, while bad decisions often stem from cognitive biases, emotional reactions, or insufficient information.
Conclusion
The quality of a decision is contingent upon various factors, including accuracy, long-term utility, ethical considerations, and consistency in framing. While rational criteria can guide decision-making towards more favorable outcomes, external variables and unforeseen circumstances may influence the final result. Reflecting on personal experiences and considering the interplay between cognitive biases and decision outcomes can provide valuable insights into enhancing decision-making processes and achieving better outcomes in diverse scenarios.