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Financial Analysis and Budget Forecasting in Public Administration
analyze your government agency's budgeting process. You can make up any type of agency, such as a fire department, police department, etc. You are tasked with completing two main components: Looking at your agency's budget, consider the following: Part 1: Budget Forecasting a. Review the provided financial data and background information for the government agency. b. Apply both quantitative and qualitative techniques to forecast and estimate the financial needs of the agency for the upcoming fiscal year. Consider factors such as historical trends, economic conditions, legislative changes, and programmatic requirements. c. Develop a comprehensive budget forecast that outlines projected revenues, expenditures, and funding priorities. Justify your assumptions and methodology for forecasting financial needs. Part 2: Cost Analysis and Savings Opportunities a. Conduct a thorough analysis of the agency's financial data to identify key cost drivers and areas of expenditure. b. Synthesize the financial information to identify potential savings opportunities and cost containment strategies. This may involve analyzing trends, bench marking against industry standards, and evaluating the efficiency of current expenditures. c. Present your findings in a structured report format, highlighting specific recommendations for reducing costs, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing fiscal sustainability. This section should include: • Executive Summary • Introduction • Budget Forecasting Methodology and Analysis • Cost Analysis and Savings Opportunities • Recommendations • Conclusion
Introduction
ZEMS provides pre-hospital emergency medical care and transport services within the City of Zenith (population 250,000). Our budget supports 10 ambulance units, a staff of 120 paramedics and EMTs, and a dispatch center. The current operational efficiency is high, but the agency faces increasing pressure from rising labor costs and new legislative mandates requiring expanded community health services.
ZEMS Financial Data (FY 2025 Actuals)
Amount (USD)
Percentage
Total Operating Expenditures
$13,000,000
100%
Personnel (Salaries, Benefits, OT)
$9,100,000
70%
Fleet Operations (Fuel, Maint., Repairs)
$1,950,000
15%
Supplies (Medical & Administrative)
$1,300,000
10%
Utilities & Facilities
$650,000
5%
Total Revenue
$11,500,000
City General Fund Allocation
$8,000,000
Billing & Fees (Insurance, Patient Pay)
$3,500,000
Projected FY 2025 Deficit
($1,500,000)
Part 1: Budget Forecasting Methodology and Analysis
Methodology and Assumptions
Technique
Description
Application and Assumption
Quantitative (Historical Trend)
Linear Regression/Simple Rate Indexing: Applied a five-year average inflation rate (2.5%) plus a fixed growth rate to non-discretionary spending categories.
Assumption: Supplies and Utilities will grow by a stable 3% based on historical average and current CPI forecasts.
Quantitative (Cost-to-Serve)
Unit Cost Analysis: Analyzed the Personnel line item based on contractual obligations rather than historical spend.
Assumption: Contractually mandated 4% raise and 6% benefit cost increase for all personnel (Total 10.24% increase).
Qualitative (Legislative & Programmatic)
Zero-Based Budgeting: Applied to the new "Community Paramedicine Outreach" (CPO) mandate. This is a new cost center that must be fully funded to ensure compliance.
Assumption: The state mandate requires $750,000 to hire 3 dedicated CPO staff, purchase a specialized van, and cover training/supply costs.
Sample Answer
🚑 City of Zenith EMS (ZEMS) Budget Analysis: FY 2026 Forecast
Executive Summary
The City of Zenith EMS (ZEMS) requires a 12% increase in its Operating Budget for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026, totaling $14,560,000. This forecast is driven primarily by mandatory salary and benefit adjustments, anticipated fuel cost volatility, and the critical need to fund a new training and community outreach program mandated by recent state legislation. Our analysis identifies personnel (70%) and fleet operations (15%) as the primary cost drivers. Savings opportunities focus on optimizing shift scheduling using predictive analytics, which could yield a 5% reduction in overtime expenditure, saving approximately $200,000 annually, and renegotiating maintenance contracts. The recommendations aim to achieve fiscal sustainability while maintaining high-quality emergency response.