Managerial Decision Making Assignment

Managerial Decision Makin" rel="nofollow">ing Assignment Order Description Assignment Briefin" rel="nofollow">ing (Level 5) Module Name Managerial Decision Makin" rel="nofollow">ing Module Code BB5101 Assignment Title Individual Busin" rel="nofollow">iness Forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing Report Type of Submission Electronic Weightin" rel="nofollow">ing of the assignment in" rel="nofollow">in the overall module grade 40% Word Count 1250 Issue Date Wednesday 18th January 2017 Submission Date Tuesday 21st February 2017 Date of Feedback to Students Tuesday 21st March 2017 Where feedback can be found Onlin" rel="nofollow">ine Assignment Task This in" rel="nofollow">individual report will require to you analyse a set of data usin" rel="nofollow">ing the forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing and lin" rel="nofollow">inear programmin" rel="nofollow">ing modellin" rel="nofollow">ing approaches covered in" rel="nofollow">in the module. You will be tested both on your ability to apply the correct set of quantitative analytical techniques to a set of forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing data, but also your ability to diagnose the data, select appropriate models, in" rel="nofollow">interpret the output generated and evaluate your analysis appropriately so that the data you produce can be used for future managerial decision makin" rel="nofollow">ing. Background/Context SCENARIO Jake Fearne is the owner of Garrett Magazin" rel="nofollow">ines, which produces two food magazin" rel="nofollow">ines: • Tom’s Treats, published monthly and which Jake Fearne thin" rel="nofollow">inks the circulation data is stationary • Cass’s Cakes, published quarterly and which Jake Fearne thin" rel="nofollow">inks the circulation data is non-stationary Circulation data for each magazin" rel="nofollow">ine is provided in" rel="nofollow">in GM Circulation Data.xlsx. WHAT YOU ARE REQUIRED TO DO: Write a brief report discussin" rel="nofollow">ing your answers to the tasks below usin" rel="nofollow">ing the GM circulation data and submit your quantitative analysis on a supportin" rel="nofollow">ing spreadsheet. The aim of this assignment is to model and analyse the data appropriately and in" rel="nofollow">interpret your output to provide recommendations to the owner of Garrett Magazin" rel="nofollow">ines on how to manage the busin" rel="nofollow">iness goin" rel="nofollow">ing forward. For the Tom’s Treats magazin" rel="nofollow">ine data: Task 1: Carry out appropriate diagnostic analysis to confirm whether you agree with Jake Fearne’s conclusion that the data for Tom’s Treats is stationary. Make sure you provide a body of evidence to back up your reasonin" rel="nofollow">ing. Task 2: In your spreadsheet, apply the followin" rel="nofollow">ing FOUR updatin" rel="nofollow">ing schemes: Naïve Forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing, Updatin" rel="nofollow">ing the Mean, Movin" rel="nofollow">ing Average of Length k and either Weighted Movin" rel="nofollow">ing Average of length k OR Simple Exponential Smoothin" rel="nofollow">ing. In your report, provide a summary table to present the forecast for the next time period under each of the schemes and write a short statement to justify the values you in" rel="nofollow">introduce, ie: k, weights, alpha, method of optimisation. Task 3: Evaluate each updatin" rel="nofollow">ing scheme you have used in" rel="nofollow">in task 2 usin" rel="nofollow">ing statistical and graphical analysis. Recommend which one updatin" rel="nofollow">ing scheme should be used to forecast the next time period value. In your discussion explain" rel="nofollow">in why you have selected your chosen scheme over the other methods and discuss how suitable you thin" rel="nofollow">ink your model is. For the Cass’s Cakes magazin" rel="nofollow">ine data: Task 4: Carry out diagnostic analysis and build an appropriate model to forecast the circulation data for Cass’s Cakes. Make sure you are clear about which time series components you believe this data exhibits and back up your reasonin" rel="nofollow">ing with graphical and statistical analysis. Present your forecast for the next time period. Task 5: Evaluate your model in" rel="nofollow">in task 4 usin" rel="nofollow">ing statistical and graphical analysis and discuss any factors that the manager should consider when forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing data that is exhibitin" rel="nofollow">ing this/these time series components. For all magazin" rel="nofollow">ine data: Task 6: Given your analysis of Garrett Magazin" rel="nofollow">ine’s circulation data what factors, issues or developments should Jake Fearne consider for the future? MARKING CRITERIA The markin" rel="nofollow">ing criteria guidelin" rel="nofollow">ines are published in" rel="nofollow">in advance so you know how you will be judged for this piece of work and are available on Studyspace. HOW YOUR WORK SHOULD BE PRESENTED AND SUBMITTED You need to submit two files for this piece of coursework: 1. Written Report You are required to submit a written report with a maximum word limit of 1250 words. As this is not a formal management report, you are not required to do a summary, in" rel="nofollow">introduction etc. Rather, your report should be laid out in" rel="nofollow">into sub-sections to reflect the tasks above, although the sections will not be of equal size. The report is for the manager, so keep the audience in" rel="nofollow">in min" rel="nofollow">ind when you write up your analysis. You should be to the poin" rel="nofollow">int, supplementin" rel="nofollow">ing any statements, conclusions or comments with statistics and/or graphs where appropriate. Any graphs or tables used to illustrate a particular poin" rel="nofollow">int should be in" rel="nofollow">included in" rel="nofollow">in the main" rel="nofollow">in body of your report, labelled clearly and referenced within" rel="nofollow">in the text. Remember however, that your report will be marked alongside your spreadsheet so there is no need to in" rel="nofollow">include screenshots of the models themselves. The written report should be submitted onlin" rel="nofollow">ine via Turnitin" rel="nofollow">in on Studyspace in" rel="nofollow">in one document. 2. Supportin" rel="nofollow">ing Spreadsheet All of the quantitative analysis eg: diagnostic analysis, application and evaluation of the models, graphs and/or tables you generate, should be in" rel="nofollow">included in" rel="nofollow">in a separate spreadsheet file organised appropriately. The work in" rel="nofollow">in this file will be reviewed alongside your written report so it should be clear what you have done. This means that tables and charts should have headin" rel="nofollow">ings (especially if you use them in" rel="nofollow">in the written report), and tabs in" rel="nofollow">in the worksheet named accordin" rel="nofollow">ingly. This supportin" rel="nofollow">ing spreadsheet should be submitted on Studyspace under ‘Spreadsheet Submission’ in" rel="nofollow">in the Individual Assignment tab. FEEDBACK ON YOUR WORK Your formal feedback will be published onlin" rel="nofollow">ine no later than Tuesday 21st March 2017. However, the module is designed so that you can get regular feedback durin" rel="nofollow">ing class whilst we cover the Busin" rel="nofollow">iness Forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing topic, and you are strongly advised to build up the spreadsheet models we cover in" rel="nofollow">in class for reference durin" rel="nofollow">ing your assignment. Allocation of Marks (as per the full markin" rel="nofollow">ing criteria provided below) Section/element Allocated Marks Presentation, structure, flow, grammar, spellin" rel="nofollow">ing etc. 5% Task 1: Diagnostic Analysis of Stationary Data 10% Tasks 2/3: Application and evaluation of modellin" rel="nofollow">ing of the stationary data 40% Tasks 4/5: Diagnosis, application and evaluation of modellin" rel="nofollow">ing of the non-stationary data 35% Task 6: Other factors to consider 10% Grade Band Weight Fail/Margin" rel="nofollow">inal Fail D (40-49)/3rd C Grade/2.2 B Grade/2.1 A Grade/1st 0/5/15/25/35 45 55 65 75/85/95/100 Presentation, structure, flow, grammar, spellin" rel="nofollow">ing 5% Significant grammatical errors, lack of spellcheck used, flow to report Acceptable structure, maybe min" rel="nofollow">inimal grammatical errors that do not affect the flow of the work Satisfactory structure and acceptable use of English Good structure that clearly presents summary discussion, good flow, free of grammatical errors Excellent presentation and structure, well laid out and leads the reader from start to conclusion. Task 1: Assessment of non-stationary data 10% Incorrect analysis of poor graphs and/or statistics Graphs and/or statistics used but poorly in" rel="nofollow">interpreted or in" rel="nofollow">incorrect conclusions Correct graphs/statistics used, in" rel="nofollow">interpretation could be fuller. Not presented as a body of evidence, or analysis not related to the context Good in" rel="nofollow">interpretation of graphs and statistics that consider in" rel="nofollow">inconsistencies, provide correct and reasonable conclusions related to the context Comprehensive and in" rel="nofollow">insightful use of graphs and statistics that support the conclusions reached and relate this to the context, presented as a body of evidence Task 2/3: Application and evaluation of stationary data modellin" rel="nofollow">ing 40% Poor application of models, errors in" rel="nofollow">in modellin" rel="nofollow">ing. Little to no evaluation, poor analysis, in" rel="nofollow">incorrect conclusions or application of methods Correct schemes/models used, may be errors in" rel="nofollow">in application or poor organisation of models. Some evaluation, min" rel="nofollow">inimum required to reach some basic conclusions regardin" rel="nofollow">ing effectiveness Correct schemes/models used. Models selected are basic and require little additional analysis. Reasonable organisation of analysis. Satisfactory evaluation, some comparison statistics and graphs provided. Basic discussions that demonstrate reasonable awareness of pros and cons of models and evaluation methods Correct schemes/models used, some attempt at optimisation where appropriate. Well organised. Comprehensive evaluation that compares models effectively usin" rel="nofollow">ing graphs and statistics. Some comparative discussion provided, but could be more extensive. Correct schemes/models used, optimised correctly. Analysis is organised and presented effectively and efficiently. Critical and comprehensive graphical and statistical evaluation that discusses the multiple considerations in" rel="nofollow">in forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing. Models are compared and contrasted effectively to provide a justified conclusion Task 4/5: Diagnosis, application and evaluation of non-stationary data modellin" rel="nofollow">ing 35% Task 6: Other factors considered 10% Little or no other factors considered, discussion not relevant Some discussion that is relevant to the busin" rel="nofollow">iness and forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing context Competent discussion over other factors relatin" rel="nofollow">ing to the busin" rel="nofollow">iness and forecastin" rel="nofollow">ing context Discussion concludes the precedin" rel="nofollow">ing report, and is relevant and related to the conclusions presented Excellent conclusion to the report, discussin" rel="nofollow">ing related factors that should be considered within" rel="nofollow">in this context. Logical and relevant.