Managerial Economics

A) Hardin" rel="nofollow">ing Silicon Enterprises, Inc. produces less than 1% of the world’s supply of 32 MB random access memory (RAM) chips for electronic devices. HSE’s RAM chips perform accordin" rel="nofollow">ing to globally accepted performance standards for this type of silicon chip (i.e., its chips are just like every other producers’ chips). HSE has hired you to do undertake three tasks: 1. Perform a statistical analysis of its short-run production costs to estimate its total variable cost function, average variable cost function, and margin" rel="nofollow">inal cost function. HSE believes its total fixed costs will be $6,500 per month, so you do not need to estimate TFC. 2. Recommend production levels and forecast profits for two chip price scenarios: a. The price of 32 MB RAM chips reaches $62 per chip, and b. The price of 32 MB RAM chips falls to $35 per chip. 3. Determin" rel="nofollow">ine the price below which HSE should shut down operations in" rel="nofollow">in the short run. HSE provides you with the followin" rel="nofollow">ing cost and output data for the past 19 months. Over this time period, in" rel="nofollow">inflation has been so low that you do not need to adjust the cost data for the effects of in" rel="nofollow">inflation (the CPI rose only 0.4% over the 19 month time period). Monthly output of chips is given in" rel="nofollow">in the second column, which is titled “Monthly production of fin" rel="nofollow">inished product.” Costs are reported in" rel="nofollow">in seven categories (some are fixed costs and some are variable costs). HINT: Remember, cost items are part of fixed costs if the costs do not vary with output, even though fixed cost items may vary over time. Cost Items for Hardin" rel="nofollow">ing Silicon Enterprises, Inc. Month Monthly production of fin" rel="nofollow">inished product Busin" rel="nofollow">iness licenses & fees Insurance premiums Buildin" rel="nofollow">ing lease payment Materials expenses Telephone Energy expenses Wage expense Nov-98 875 0 0 3570 9690 945 7230 12250 Dec-98 670 0 0 3570 6700 945 5115 8995 Jan-99 1675 6000 2200 3570 16295 945 12884 23106 Feb-99 1155 0 0 3570 11285 945 9240 15225 Mar-99 1845 0 0 3570 16550 945 14220 24530 Apr-99 1650 0 0 3570 16230 945 12700 21600 May-99 1955 0 0 3570 19626 945 15640 27484 Jun-99 2845 0 0 3570 27410 945 22760 39830 Jul-99 2265 0 2200 3570 20526 945 17244 31225 Aug-99 3470 0 0 3570 34176 830 25760 48564 Sep-99 3665 0 0 3570 36726 830 28720 50094 Oct-99 3750 0 0 3570 42576 830 32000 54474 Nov-99 4595 0 0 3570 48226 830 37260 66414 Dec-99 4060 0 0 3570 41095 830 33155 57840 Jan-00 3575 7200 2450 4200 34550 830 27400 50050 Feb-00 4380 0 0 4200 41800 830 34460 61320 Mar-00 5575 0 0 4200 81750 830 54600 82150 Apr-00 7870 0 0 4200 92360 830 102960 130180 May-00 6750 0 0 4200 89576 830 70000 109774 1. a. Compute total variable cost (TVC) by addin" rel="nofollow">ing the appropriate columns of cost items. Compute average variable cost (AVC). [Remember that you are given an estimate of HSE’s future total fixed costs ($6,500 per month).] Prin" rel="nofollow">int out the 19 months of data on output (Q) and total variable cost (TVC) and average variable cost (AVC). b. Plot a scatter diagram of TVC on the vertical axis and Q on the horizontal axis. Does the scatter diagram suggest a functional form for TVC? Explain" rel="nofollow">in briefly. c. Plot a scatter diagram of AVC on the vertical axis and Q on the horizontal axis. Does the scatter diagram suggest a functional form for AVC? Explain" rel="nofollow">in briefly. d. Estimate a quadratic AVC function. Present the estimated equation and evaluate the regression results (i.e., discuss the algebraic signs of the parameter estimates, the significance levels, and the R2). e. Evaluate the results of your regression equation in" rel="nofollow">in part a. Specifically discuss algebraic signs of parameters, statistical significance, and goodness of fit. 2. a. How many chips should be produced (monthly) if world chip prices are $62 per chip? Forecast the HSE’s profit at this output level. b. How many chips should be produced (monthly) if world chip prices are $35 per chip? Forecast the profit at this output level. 3. At what price should Hardin" rel="nofollow">ing shut down and produce no chips in" rel="nofollow">in the short run? B) XYZ Petrochemical is considerin" rel="nofollow">ing three production alternatives. The management of the company has listed three choices as follows: 1. Expand production by 25 percent. 2. Main" rel="nofollow">intain" rel="nofollow">in the production at current level. 3. Reduce the production by 10 percent. For each of the above possible alternatives and the expected state of the economy, the management prepared the followin" rel="nofollow">ing outcome matrix: Decision State of the Economy Boom Normal Recession Expand production by 25% AED 15 million - AED 3 million - AED 3 million Main" rel="nofollow">in current production level AED 9 million AED 6 million AED 1.5 million Reduce production by 10% AED 6 million AED 1 million AED 2.25 million The management of XYZ does not know exactly which state of the economy will accurately occur or the probabilities of occurrence. Q1: Explain" rel="nofollow">in this situation in" rel="nofollow">in terms of risk and uncertain" rel="nofollow">inty with proper justification? Q2: What decision rules are available to make suitable decisions for the above case? Apply these rules and compare the resultin" rel="nofollow">ing decision in" rel="nofollow">in each case? Q3: Suppose the management was able to predict the likelihood of occurrence for the state of the economy as follows: - Boom: 0.25 - Normal: 0.50 - Recession: 0.25 Use a proper tool to evaluate the risk that XYZ will face? Assumin" rel="nofollow">ing that the management is risk averse which alternative will be chosen? Why?