1) Describe in words (e.g., not equations) each of the four ODEs of the SEIR model. 2) The first confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported in Story County on
March 14, 2020. Assume that one infected person is the initiation of the presence of COVID-19 in Story County. Simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 SEIR in
MATLAB for the estimated population of Story County, which was 97,502 individuals in 2017. Plot E and I over 6 months. 3) Des Moines Register has called you
to ask about your predictions of the spread of COVID-19 in the area. Describe your response based on your model. 4) Iowa State University began social
distancing practices after March 23, 2020. Assuming that these practices can reduce the secondary infections from each infected individual by 10% and are
effective after two weeks of implementation, how would this change the dynamics of COVID-19 in Story County. 5) Describe (with evidence from your model) how
earlier effective intervention strategies would impact the exposed and infected individuals of COVID-19. Do your results support social distancing practices?
6) Estimates of parameters for the SEIR model are based on observed data and have a range based on confidence. For Ro, the estimated range for Wuhan was 1.4-
3.9; for Tinf, the estimated range is 0 to 14 days; and for Tinc, the estimated range was 4.1 - 7.0. Considering these ranges, how sensitive is the model
(e.g., how much would the model change) if the initial estimates of these values was incorrect. Provide examples of how the model changes (or does not change)
with at least two different parameters. Discuss how these estimations would impact accurate predictions about COVID-19
Sample Solution