Mission Analysis

  Order Description   Mission Analysis: Through mission analysis, the commander and staff should understand the problem and the resources available to solve that problem. Each staff member is responsible for conductin" rel="nofollow">ing his or her own runnin" rel="nofollow">ing (staff) estimate that provides very detailed in" rel="nofollow">information within" rel="nofollow">in his or her area of responsibility. The staff then analyzes that in" rel="nofollow">information and synthesizes (packages) it in" rel="nofollow">into the mission analysis brief. The essence of staff work in" rel="nofollow">involves distillin" rel="nofollow">ing mountain" rel="nofollow">ins of in" rel="nofollow">information in" rel="nofollow">into nuggets of knowledge. One method through which staff officers do this is to process the facts (or WHAT) in" rel="nofollow">into in" rel="nofollow">information (by askin" rel="nofollow">ing SO WHAT?), analyze the in" rel="nofollow">information to in" rel="nofollow">increase knowledge (by askin" rel="nofollow">ing WHICH MEANS?), and apply judgment to gain" rel="nofollow">in an understandin" rel="nofollow">ing (by askin" rel="nofollow">ing THEREFORE?)     REQUIREMENT 1: Runnin" rel="nofollow">ing Estimate (10 Poin" rel="nofollow">ints. Three to four double-spaced pages) You are the S-3 of the 6th Ranger Battalion conductin" rel="nofollow">ing mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lin" rel="nofollow">ingayen Gulf. Provide a complete movement estimate that LTC Mucci and his staff would use to develop plans and analyze various courses of action. Although you have the benefit of hin" rel="nofollow">indsight, write your runnin" rel="nofollow">ing estimate as you would have on 27 Jan (in" rel="nofollow">in the present or future tense) rather than as an AAR in" rel="nofollow">in the past tense. Although there are some guides and formats to a generic estimate, as well as a sample medical estimate in" rel="nofollow">included with this examin" rel="nofollow">ination, you can modify those formats or develop one to help you present your analysis to LTC Mucci. Your movement estimate should in" rel="nofollow">include, but is not limited to: • Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWs, and how much time to allocate to plannin" rel="nofollow">ing, preparation and execution. • Main" rel="nofollow">intain" rel="nofollow">inin" rel="nofollow">ing secrecy in" rel="nofollow">in varied terrain" rel="nofollow">in durin" rel="nofollow">ing day and night operations. • The appropriate balance of speed and security. • The best time of day to in" rel="nofollow">initiate actions on the objective. • The anticipated distances covered by, time required to, and rates of movement for: o the Ranger advance to the POW Camp o actions on the objective o the movement of Rangers & former POWs and 6th Army to a lin" rel="nofollow">ink-up poin" rel="nofollow">int o Japanese counterattacks. • How Filipin" rel="nofollow">ino civilians and guerrillas, as well as the US Army Air Corps can help expedite friendly forces or impede enemy forces. Essentially, your estimate should explain" rel="nofollow">in to LTC Mucci how the Rangers can get to the compound before the Japanese make the fatal decision, and how the task force and former POWs can lin" rel="nofollow">ink up with 6th Army before the Japanese catch that vulnerable group. The goal of the estimate is to help LTC Mucci plan for this mission by providin" rel="nofollow">ing him specific in" rel="nofollow">information he probably doesn’t know, rather than general ideas which he probably does know. For example, statin" rel="nofollow">ing that the POWs will move slowly is not helpful to LTC Mucci, while ESTIMATING that the POWs could move at one mile per hour for three hours before needin" rel="nofollow">ing two hours for food and rest could be helpful to LTC Mucci and his staff.   REQUIREMENT 7: COA Analysis, Comparison & Recommendation (20 Poin" rel="nofollow">ints. Three to four double-spaced pages) On 27 JAN, while the Rangers are still in" rel="nofollow">in their base camp plannin" rel="nofollow">ing and preparin" rel="nofollow">ing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contin" rel="nofollow">ingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.” • Contin" rel="nofollow">inue to move toward Guimba, recognizin" rel="nofollow">ing that movement will be slow. • Stay in" rel="nofollow">in the camp and defend while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to lin" rel="nofollow">ink up with us. • Move outside the camp to the first concealed location, and establish a defensive perimeter while the 6th Army sends a regimental combat team to lin" rel="nofollow">ink up with us. A recommended approach is to (a) list the most relevant facts and assumptions, (b) establish & defin" rel="nofollow">ine the measurable evaluation criteria, (c) analyze each COA again" rel="nofollow">inst each evaluation criterion, (d) compare the COAs, and (e) make and justify a recommendation. NOTE: The MDMP is an adaptation of the Scientific Method. A Problem is an Observation, Mission Analysis- Research, Mission- Hypothesis, and Course of Action Analysis (Wargame)- Experiment. Like a scientist, the tactician can use a simple process to analyze and compare options a. List facts and assumptions. Here, you do not need to repeat facts and assumptions from your Requirement #1 Runnin" rel="nofollow">ing Estimate. Focus on facts and assumptions which you may not have in" rel="nofollow">included in" rel="nofollow">in your movement estimate when you assumed the locals could provide enough carts. Place all facts and assumptions before the analysis of your COAs, rather than listin" rel="nofollow">ing (and repeatin" rel="nofollow">ing) facts for each COA. b. Establish measurable evaluation criteria. If you were buyin" rel="nofollow">ing a car, you might consider cost, carryin" rel="nofollow">ing capacity, and fuel economy. DO NOT USE SCREENING CRITERIA. LTC Mucci feels that each of HIS suggestions is feasible, suitable, distin" rel="nofollow">inguishable and acceptable to him. None is yet complete, but he is confident his staff will make them so. Likewise, broad undefin" rel="nofollow">ined terms such as the Prin" rel="nofollow">inciples of War are normally not useful criteria for evaluatin" rel="nofollow">ing a unique problem. As in" rel="nofollow">in an experiment or car purchase, evaluation criteria must be variables, rather than constants. If experimentin" rel="nofollow">ing with pendulums, pendulum length, weight, and arc are each variables, which the scientist measures when analyzin" rel="nofollow">ing the period of motion. In this scenario, the speed of the POWs movement is a constant (and should be listed as a fact or assumption); while the time until lin" rel="nofollow">ink-up with 6th Army is different for each COA (in" rel="nofollow">in which one or both forces are movin" rel="nofollow">ing different distances) and could serve as a useful evaluation criteria. c. Analyze each COA again" rel="nofollow">inst each evaluation criterion. • Although there is a tendency to organize the course of action analysis by the evaluation criteria, Step 4 of the MDMP (FM 6-0 p 9-25 through 9-34) focuses on an analysis by course of action. In other words, you don't have to write a paragraph for each evaluation criterion as you explain" rel="nofollow">in your COA analysis. • For in" rel="nofollow">instance, we would NOT have a paragraph in" rel="nofollow">in which we analyze the "Time from in" rel="nofollow">initiation of the assault until completion of lin" rel="nofollow">ink-up with 6th Army" in" rel="nofollow">in which we use comparative terms (such as fastest and slowest), and then have another paragraph which analyzes the COA again" rel="nofollow">inst another evaluation criterion. • Instead, we should analyze each COA again" rel="nofollow">inst the evaluation criteria (be sure to in" rel="nofollow">include ALL of the criteria), usin" rel="nofollow">ing our facts and assumptions. For example, if we assume that without carts the POWs could walk at 1 mph durin" rel="nofollow">ing daylight and .5 mph at night, and further assume that the Rangers will begin" rel="nofollow">in their assault at 2000 hrs., then through analysis we may estimate that the POWs and Rangers could get to Guimba in" rel="nofollow">in about 60 hours. • For part c, your answer should be approximately a half-page narrative for each contin" rel="nofollow">ingency presented in" rel="nofollow">in Requirement 7. d. Compare the COAs to each other usin" rel="nofollow">ing a decision matrix or other technique. Clearly in" rel="nofollow">indicate if high or low scores are best, and explain" rel="nofollow">in any weightin" rel="nofollow">ing you apply. e. Make and justify a recommendation.