The purpose of this Probability Project is to show your understanding of what you have learned in Module 3.
You will watch a video and apply the appropriate probability concepts from this module. You will discuss your
learnings in a 2-page paper as outlined below.
Instructions
This is a fun assignment to do. In chapter 5 you learned about basic probability and learned about conditional
probability. Now, you get to see these two in action. You may have heard of the TV game: "Let’s Make a Deal,"
where at the end of the show, contestants are presented with 3 doors and they are informed that behind one of
the doors is a brand-new car. So, the contestant chooses one of three doors. Then the game show host (First
one was Monty Hall), opens a door and reveals a goat. Then Monty asks if the contestant wants to switch or
not. So, the question is, what is the probability of winning? Should I stay, or should I switch? What would you
do?
Imagine that the set of Monty Hall's game show Let's Make a Deal has three closed doors. Behind one of these
doors is a car; behind the other two are goats. The contestant does not know where the car is, but Monty Hall
does. The contestant picks a door and Monty opens one of the remaining doors, one he knows doesn't hide
the car. If the contestant has already chosen the correct door, Monty is equally likely to open either of the two
remaining doors. After Monty has shown a goat behind the door that he opens, the contestant is always given
the option to switch doors. What is the probability of winning the car if she stays with her first choice? What if
she decides to switch? Think about what you think the answer is: stay or switch?
- Watch a TEDEd video that explains the problem: “Should I stay or should I switch doors?”
- Write a paper that includes:
a. What did you think the probability of winning the car was, before you watched the video? (3 points)
b. Information from the video what the answer really is (3 points)
c. How can you use probability and probability rules in arriving at the answer? What probability ideas does this
demonstrate and use? Explain and give examples. You may use other sources as well but make sure to cite
them (you may want to watch the extended version of the video if you are not sure, watch the Monty Hall
Problem video. (15 points)
d. Are you surprised by the answer to the question “stay or switch”? Does it make sense? (3 points)
Sample Solution