Risk Management for Projects (a quantitative simulation)

  Problem 2: a quantitative simulation Risk analysis simulation Develop a two dimensional spreadsheet (the model) that contains mixtures of constants and variables. Compile data where possible for your input variables and identify distributions that reflects that data. Justify your selection. Using @RISK simulate the effect the selected distributions have on the outcome or outcomes and present the results using a variety of suitable graphs and reports. Critically interpret the results and comment on how the results could influence your risk management strategy. Advice on developing the model. It is best to view the development of the model as an iterative process. Start with a simple speardsheet and add complexity as your understanding of the program, the inputs and outputs develop. Try to avoid using Excel’s functions in your model, use the basic formula. Do not mix the model and the data; keep them both on separate sheets in the spreadsheets. Specific Assessment Criteria Along with the general assessment criteria listed above the following specific assessment criteria will be used in the assessment of this portfilio. Each criterion is allocated a percentage weighting to indicate its importance. ? Quality and complexity of spreadsheet. (15%) ? Analysis of and identification of variable distribution. (25%) ? Effective use of @RISK. (10%) ? Critical interpretation of output. (30%) ? Written and graphical presentation skills. (20%) A marking rubric for Problem 2 is posted on blackboard and appended to the handbook. The marking rubic will give you a greater insite into how this problem will be marked and it will form the basis of the feedback for this work once it has been marked. PLEASE NOTE: that the work is to be submitted on-line via Turnitin on Blackboard and the submission date is Tuesday 1st May 2018