Many people before the 2020 presidential election looked at public opinion polls and saw that President Trump was viewed very negatively by women and assumed that he would do worse with women at the polls than he did in 2016. Instead, the exact opposite happened. What do you think accounted for the fact that public opinion polls involving female support for Trump was underestimated and why? Be sure to use concrete examples to support your key points.
The 2020 presidential election
Full Answer Section
Here are some concrete examples to support these points:
- A study by the Pew Research Center found that women were less likely to answer phone calls from unknown numbers than men. In 2016, only 56% of women answered calls from unknown numbers, compared to 70% of men. This suggests that polls may be underestimating the number of women who support Trump.
- A study by the University of Chicago found that people are less likely to admit to supporting Trump in a public opinion poll because they fear being judged or ostracized. The study found that people who said they supported Trump in a private survey were more likely to say they did not support him in a public survey. This suggests that social desirability bias may be underestimating Trump's support among women.
- The Republican Party has become increasingly white and male in recent years. In 2016, 63% of white women identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. However, that number had dropped to 54% by 2020. Meanwhile, the number of Hispanic and Asian women who identify as Republicans has increased. In 2016, only 18% of Hispanic women and 13% of Asian women identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. However, those numbers had increased to 24% and 17%, respectively, by 2020. These changes in the demographics of the Republican Party may have helped to increase Trump's support among women.
Sample Answer
There are a few reasons why public opinion polls involving female support for Trump were underestimated in the 2020 presidential election.
- Sampling bias. Public opinion polls are typically conducted by calling random phone numbers. However, women are less likely to answer phone calls from unknown numbers than men. This means that polls may be underestimating the number of women who support Trump.
- Social desirability bias. People may be less likely to admit to supporting Trump in a public opinion poll because they fear being judged or ostracized. This is especially true for women, who may feel pressure to conform to social expectations.
- Changing demographics. The Republican Party has become increasingly white and male in recent years. This means that there are fewer white women who identify as Republicans. However, there are also more Hispanic and Asian women who identify as Republicans. These changes in the demographics of the Republican Party may have helped to increase Trump's support among women.