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Analysis of the PRC-Taiwan scenario

Based on your analysis of the PRC-Taiwan scenario, prepare a six-page narrative essay ranking the three hypotheses (from most likely to occur to the least likely to occur).

Sample Solution

There are several interpretations which explore the main reason for the end of the Cold War such as the Afghanistan War, Reagan’s Presidency, Gorbachev’s leadership, the economy and the independence of Eastern European countries. The main factor that led to the end of the Cold War was the debilitated relationship of the Soviet Union with Eastern European countries which meant that countries such as Poland and Hungary gained independence. As Levesqué argues, the independence of Eastern European countries led to the end of the breakdown of the Soviet Union, ultimately ending the Cold War because of the lack of focus on the East and the increased focus on the West. Moreover, the Soviet Union could not maintain their power and control over the Eastern European countries and could not provide financial aid when requested by Eastern European leaders. Thus, they saw Soviet control and support as inadequate. Although Oberdorfer sees Gorbachev’s leadership as the most important reason for the end of the Cold War, it is not true because the gaining of independence was the most detrimental factor which completely dissolved the Soviet Union, hence why the gaining of independence of Eastern European countries was the most impactful factor that led to the end of the Cold War. Levesqué: Levesqué believes the main reason for the end of the Cold War was the lack of control Gorbachev had over the Eastern European countries. Ultimately, this led to the end of the Cold War because the countries broke away from the Soviet control, which further led to the rapid downfall of the Soviets. Levesqué argues Gorbachev tried to have “the best of both worlds” by having “change and relative stability” in the Eastern European countries. Gorbachev was too focused on the West, disregarding the Eastern European countries which led to their independence because “first priority was given to the East-West rapprochement”. Therefore, the Eastern European countries were a significant reason for the end of the Cold War because the Soviet Union lost control over them as their power was minimised. Additionally, Levesqué depicts how historians in the past thought that Soviet Union leaders had “very poor information on the situation in Eastern Europe”. His argument is based on newly released documents, such as the report from the Bogomolov Institute, which clearly reveal problems at the time – they were just not acted upon. Eastern countries e.g Bratislava were looking to become independent because they disliked the Russian control, but this desire for independence was negative since it meant that the Soviet Union had less control over ref
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